NFC North Preview
Many thanks to P-Track for coming up with such a wonderful format for this article. I mean, I only had to stay over the weekend to finish it, but no big deal. So let's get this thing rolling with a quick look - err, I mean - a meticulous analysis of the NFC North.
Minnesota Vikings
The Purple People Eaters are a rather popular prognosticator-pick this preseason. Try saying that three times fast. The opportunity to pillage the Frozen North is due to a few obvious factors: The wishy-washy retirement plans of Mr. Favre and the weakness of the division in general. The Lions are, well, the Lions. The Bears are actually jealous of the quarterback situations of the other three teams in the division. The Pack will not repeat last year's unexpected success. That leaves the Vikings, their super-human running-man, improved defense, and probably the best left side of an offensive line in the league. Even Cedric Benson could run for a 1,000 yards behind that line - and he'd fit right in at the next Vikings boating trip.
Player to Own: Adrian Peterson (RB) - Mark it down. Forget the possibility of injuries. Forget Chester. Forget that AD slowed down in the second half of last year. Forget that he only had 19 receptions. He is a bad, bad man and will only improve after getting a full off-season under his belt.
Player to Avoid: Everyone else - The defense should put up some decent numbers, taking into account the weak division and relatively easy schedule, but still not worth spending a high pick on them. Avoid Minnesota receivers like you'd avoid an invite to hang out with Javon Walker.
Sleeper Pick: Vikings Defense (D) - Kind of gave this one away already and some may not view them as a sleeper, but the Viking's Defense could be top five; especially if your league's defensive scoring includes yards and/or points against. They ranked number one against the run in 2007, with the half ton of Williams clogging the middle and added the pass rush abilities of sack-master Jared Allen. Add to that an above average return game, and the secondary getting some pick-6's, and you have a solid starting D for the entire year.
Biggest Risk: Adrian Peterson (RB) - I contemplated saying Tarvaris Jackson, but this is not really news and most owners wouldn't take him with a high pick anyway, so no real risk with his selection. Same thing applies to the average, at best, receiving corps (adding Bernard Berrian does not improve this squad). So quite honestly, Peterson must be seen as the biggest risk, being that he's the only real fantasy option in Minnesota worth taking. Although most were fluke injuries in the past, the chance of missed time still lingers, particularly with his violent running style (not sure who coined that phrase, but it fits AD perfectly). His pace slowed considerably in the second half last year and defenses aren't going to worry about Tarvaris beating them through the air. Take Peterson if he's there, but also be sure to grab Chester Taylor down the line as insurance, since he has now replaced Michael Turner as the top handcuff in the league (sorry Burner, but you're a starter now).
Green Bay Packers
Are you ready for some weak metaphors? Well since the NFL and its fans are no better than those of any other entertainment media, we continuously have our own gossip headlines. Take the NFL heartthrob, a golden boy who is universally loved and boasts an impressive resume. We'll call him Brett Pitt. Then you have his longtime partner, his support system, a team that has shown flashes of greatness in the past, but has aged a bit: The Green Bay Anistons. Will there be a Jolie-like team this year swooping in to break the hearts of the cheese-eating nation? Will we feel for the forlorn, forgotten team or will they score with a younger quarterback? Or will we secretly root for Brett's new suitor, a possibly sexier and more seductive partner that might rejuvenate Favre? Okay, let me stop this now, before I have him adopting a young Cambodian boy.
Basically, I don't see how this situation can help the Pack. They are trying to move on, but the Good Ol' Boy won't let them. Is it possible that Brett is dumb enough to not realize what he's doing? Does he really need the attention or is this whole thing a media/fan creation with no basis in reality? Does he not get enough adoration during his backyard touch football games with the other wrangler-wearing has-beens? I'm not sure that any of this matters in the grand scheme of things, because with or without him the Packers will not repeat the success of last year. They added nothing through free agency, had a pedestrian draft, and the cornerbacks are only getting older.
Player to Own: Ryan Grant (RB) - Grant was a surprise to everyone last year, fantasy owners and Packer fans alike. He will not surprise people this year and the distinct possibility that an unproven quarterback will be lining up under center (Rodgers, or possibly rookie Brian Brohm) does not necessarily bode well for Grant. That being said, he wasn't a fluke. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, he's a hard worker, a quick learner and he has game breaking ability. I especially loved how he bounced back after two fumbles in the playoff game against Seattle last year. His running style fits the Packer's zone blocking perfectly and he should still put up solid numbers (though four games against the Vikings and Bears run-stopping defenses do give me slight pause). He should be between the sixth and tenth back taken, right outside of the top five (LT, AD, Westbrook, Addai, Jackson).
Player to Avoid: Greg Jennings (WR) - It honestly pains me to say this about Jennings, as he helped carry my team last year as a tenth round pick. He's young, fast, consistent, with great hands, but he cannot possibly be expected to match last year's output. The receiving corps in Green Bay is solid and fairly deep, which should spread the receptions around. Still, Jennings will likely draw the best corner from the opposition and the ability for either Rodgers or Brohm to get the ball to him is still in question. I still believe he is worth a later round pick, even though last year's numbers might have substantiated an earlier selection otherwise.
Sleeper Pick: Donald Lee (TE) - Lee seems to fit the sleeper term perfectly. He's a solid blocker allowing him to stay on the field during most downs; he is athletic and quick, with the ability to stretch the field (10 of his 48 receptions went for more than 10 yards last year); he should solidify the starting job this season (started 12 games in 07); his numbers have steadily increased every year and he is coming off of career highs in receptions (48), yards (575), and touchdowns (6). Plus, it is not uncommon for newer quarterbacks to rely heavily on short throws to a dependable tight end.
Biggest Risk: Packers Quarterbacks - This would have to go to whoever gets the starting nod in Green Bay. Barring the return of the Madden cover boy/man-crush, either Aaron Rodgers or Brian Brohm will take the reins of the Packer Express. As much as this is an obviously risky situation, it also holds a slight level of intrigue. Rodgers looked pretty good at times last year and he will likely be the starter from the get go. He's very familiar with the offense, has an array of weapons at his disposal, a solid line, and he's more nimble in the pocket than his gun-slinging predecessor. Granted, Rodgers will be under a ton of pressure in trying to replace a legend, but it will be hard for him to be more careless passing the ball than Favre, the NFL career leader in interceptions.
Detroit Lions
Okay, first of all - it's the Lions. I'm not hearing any guarantees this time around and for good reason. I see the Lions and their draft picks as that crappy, old Ford Escort that some numbskull buys for $4K and then spends $20K sprucing it up with a tail fin, shiny rims, neon lights, and a paint job. It's still a crappy car at its core; you just temporarily covered it up. The problem is that people in The Motor City cannot be fooled; even with the top-shelf receivers they have had the opportunity to watch waste away into obscurity. Detroit knows winners when they see them - the Tigers, Red Wings, and Pistons have proven relatively successful in recent years - and they know stinkers as well. I can't say that I see things changing anytime soon at Ford Field. The only way it could get worse for the Lions is if Appalachian State beats them.
Player to Own: Roy Williams (WR) - It has to be Williams I guess. He fits the mold of today's successful NFL receiver: tall, strong, great hands, good route running, and a big mouth that never shuts up. Check, check, check, check, and check! Again, I'm not very high on the Lions and with Martz leaving town and a renewed focus on the running game this year…this has not a particularly positive off-season turn of events for Roy. He still has a few things going for him however; he's still a freakish talent in a contract year looking to produce big numbers. One way or another he will find ways to put up points for your team.
Player to Avoid: Jon Kitna (QB) - No big surprise here. Kitna has always been overrated in my opinion, a guy who throws for decent yardage but has never been able to consistently win games outside of NFL Europe. Plus, he regularly throws as many interceptions as touchdowns (if not more), and is frequent prey to sack-leaders across the league (taken down 114 times in the last two seasons). Throw in a more balanced offense the Lions will be implementing and the fact that new coordinator Jim Colletto referred to Kitna as "just part of the squad," (possibly insinuating a chance for Drew Stanton or Dan Orlovsky to start) and you have yourself a perfect player to avoid.
Sleeper Pick: Kevin Smith (RB) - Smith is a somewhat trendy sleeper pick among other EA Experts, which seems like a contradiction now that I think about it, but can very well be attributed to his productive season at nearby UCF and the rampant "homerism" of the aforementioned experts. Well, I'm guilty as well, because I love Silent Bob's chances of NFL success. Here are two reasons in particular, the first of which is based in reality while the second serves as more of a sign, a burning bush if you will. First, the reality: Tatum Bell is garbage, so Smith should find himself starting before long. Second, you might be aware that Smith came very close to breaking the NCAA record for most yards in a season, a record held by the legendary Lion Barry Sanders. Now I'm in no way comparing these two, but I don't think it's a coincidence either; rather, I think fate played a part in putting Smith in this situation and I think he will flourish (this year and beyond), despite the fact that he's playing for the Lions.
Biggest Risk: Kevin Smith (RB) - By definition, a sleeper can also be viewed as a risk, otherwise wouldn't everybody draft him, thereby making him a sleeper no more? Wait, now I'm confused. Basically, as much as I like Smith and the potential for a big year, the same can be said about the possibility of the Lions front line playing like a powder puff team and Tatum Bell actually playing decently, refusing to make way for Smith.
Chicago Bears
It seems like just yesterday that the Monsters of the Midway were taking their suffocating defense to the Super Bowl. A year and a half, and two Manning victories later, the Bears are still stuck with an average team in a below average division. This is not a terrible thing - the NFC North is there for the taking; the question is whether or not the offense can hold up their end, since it's pretty evident that a defense led by Tommie Harris and Brian Urlacher will do their part.
Player to Own: Chicago Defense (D) - One thing is for sure, the defense will have plenty of opportunities to make plays with the anemic Bears offense sharing their locker-room. As mentioned, there are plenty of playmakers on this defense, including Nathan Vassar and Lance Briggs, and assuming Urlacher gets the new deal he wants, it should be more of the same dominating "D". If you're in a league that combines defenses and special teams, which most leagues do, this selection becomes all the more enticing. Devin Hester is, hands down, the best on the planet at returning kicks. Unless he's named as a starting receiver at some point, that fact will not change. It is also worth mentioning that Robbie Gould is a consistent kicker with excellent accuracy.
Player to Avoid: Rex Grossman (QB) - If you need an explanation then you better stop playing fantasy football.
Sleeper Pick/ Biggest Risk: Matt Forte (RB) - Forte is a name that has been floating around quite a bit lately, for obvious reasons (i.e. Cedric Benson's impressive list of off-season activities). I see this guy as a possible sleeper, but also a risk in the same vein. I think he is quickly becoming overvalued; where he was once a sleeper with nice potential, he is being discussed often enough now to lose the sleeper tag and possibly delve into an area of risk. I'll be honest, I'm a huge college football fan and I still know very little about this dude. Granted, I never found myself wishing I watched more Tulane football, but I usually am still aware of the top college players, regardless of where they played (Tomlinson deserves all the credit for me watching multiple TCU games back in the day). I'm not worried about the lower level of competition he faced in college (an often overblown fact), but what's making me nervous are the knee problems his junior year, a feeble Bears passing game, and the presence of The Other Adrian Peterson (a record-breaking rusher at Georgia Southern).
Author's Bio - Rick Lopez
Rick has been with Tiburon since 2002 where he started as a QA tester. He has since been a QA Lead on numerous projects, the QA Trainer, and most recently a producer and designer on both NCAA 07 and NCAA 08. His next project will be as a designer on next year's Madden title. Rick has owned more than 30 different fantasy football teams in the last 12 years, including standard draft, keeper, auction, and salary cap leagues. He's been doing this so long that he can boast having had Curtis Martin, Mark Brunell, and Herman Moore help him win a championship.
Comments or Questions? Email us at fantasy@ea.com
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