EA Fantasy Football

AFC East Preview

By Patrick Lamont

"Word is bond, son". That was the response of EA Sports Fantasy Football boss-man Ronnie "Romo" Morales when I promised him my first article of the year would be sitting on his desk no later than Monday afternoon. I guess it's only fair to get you guys what you deserve; some of that P-Track wisdom you relied on so heavily last year. It's good to be back talking football (even though I'm watching the Red Sox game while I write this). So let's get things started with an inside look at the AFC East.

New England Patriots

18-1. Boy, that still stings. Hopefully, for my fellow New England fans out there, Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots feel the same way. The New York Giants (and to be fair, a few other teams towards the end of last season) figured out how to stop (or at least, slow down) the Pats offense. So it will be very interesting to see how they come out of the gates in '08. There are probably a few things you can set your watch to: Randy Moss will not score 23 TDs again, Tom Brady won't throw for 50 TDs again, and Coach Bill Belichick will cause fantasy owners a minimum of five massive headaches throughout the year. But beyond that, the Pats will be a wait-and-see type offense. From a strictly fantasy-based perspective, here's what you need to know:

Player to Own: Wes Welker (WR) - My "Bold Prediction" that Wes Welker will lead the NFL in RECs for a 2nd straight season hasn't caused me to lose a single minute of sleep at night. While Moss gets all the glory, Welker will get all the looks. His stat line was extremely steady last season, something you have to love as a fantasy owner (in other words, he's the anti-Chad Johnson) and even though his TD total may not be up there with Moss, in a PPR league you'd be hard-pressed to find a more valuable guy than White Lightning.

Player to Avoid: Randy Moss (WR) - Easy, big fella. I'm not saying Moss will be a bust, but his numbers will dwarf in comparison to last year's monster totals. Teams began to figure out how to stop Moss as the season progressed last year, and it's hard to envision Moss catching those 50-yard bombs in the late season Foxboro snow. He may be the most explosive WR in the league, but a late first-round draft pick spent on Moss may leave owners out in the cold.

Sleeper Pick: Jabar Gaffney (WR) - The Pats did little to replace the departed Donte Stallworth (Cleveland) this off-season so, in theory, Gaffney should get twice as many looks as the #3 WR than he did last year. Most mock drafts don't include Gaffney warranting a spot, but I guarantee he'll get picked up off of waivers at some point in your season. Chad Jackson has not proved he can stay healthy (or even catch the ball, for that matter) and offers no immediate threat to take catches away from Gaff. You may not draft him, but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Biggest Risk: Laurence Maroney (RB) - Kool-Aid frustrated owners last year by rushing for a measly 2 TD's through the first 12 weeks of the season, but made amends to those who stuck with him with a strong finish (4 TD's, 2 100+ YD games). The latter should be a good indication of what to expect from a healthy Maroney this season, but injuries and a spread offense equate to substantial risk. You'd be wise to draft Sammy Morris as a handcuff if you roll with Maroney.



New York Jets

Quick, what are three things you remember about the Jets' 2007 season? If you answered "Spygate" to all three, you are correct. The Jets didn't provide much fantasy excitement last season (even the semi-trendy "Jericho Cotchery" pick failed to live up to expectations) and you can probably expect more of the same this year, as the Jets did little to address their pedestrian offense this off-season.

Player to Own: Jericho Cotchery (WR) - Since I'm not allowed to write "N/A" here, Cotchery gets the nod. However, you could do worse than a #2 or 3 WR giving you 1100+ YDs. The 2 TDs were disappointing, and the QB situation hasn't changed much, but Cotchery is trending upwards in this, his 5th season in the league. When Laveranues Coles goes down with injury again, Pennington will lean on Cotchery even more than he already plans to - and big numbers could be the result.

Player to Avoid: Thomas Jones (RB) - Don't be deceived by Jones 1000+ YD season last year. The 1 TD is what really should be jumping out at you. Should Jones start out slow, or get dinged-up early, you're almost guaranteed to see Leon Washington come in and steal the starting job. If that happens, he won't give it up. Jones is serviceable as a #3 running back in deep leagues, or as a 4th option in standard leagues, but don't be the guy who drafts him early just because he used to be good when he was with the Bears. To be fair, Chad Pennington could have been listed here just as easily as TJ, but I can't believe people would still be drafting him these days…

Sleeper Pick: Dustin Keller (TE) - The 6'4, 240 lb. no-necked beast of a rookie TE out of Purdue may just become the Jets' primary weapon from the slot this season, and early reports out of Jets' mini-camp say he's catching everything thrown his way. And with Chris Baker's contract dispute and Bubba Franks' injury concerns, Keller might be on the field as the Jets' opening day TE. While I'd be hard-pressed to recommend drafting a rookie TE on a bad offense for your fantasy team, you may be best served to pay close attention to Keller's progress as the season goes along.

Biggest Risk: The combination of injuries and Chad Pennington are reason enough to steer clear of Laver…Laverne…steer clear of Coles.



Buffalo Bills
Just when I was starting to like the direction the Bills were headed, this "Marshawn Lynch hits a woman with his SUV" story comes out. Lynch says he didn't know he hit someone (a problem Buffalo's defense suffered from last year, hyok hyok) and, after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor, should be cleared of most charges. Lynch is the center-piece of a young Bills offense that flew a bit under the radar last year. Trent Edwards is pretty much locked-in as the everyday QB (is that a good thing?) and Lee Evans is the real-deal at the WR position. Roscoe Parrish and rookie WR James Hardy should help take pressure away from Evans, and RB Fred Jackson offers a nice insurance policy should Lynch go down. Buffalo seemed to play with more life under Dick Jauron last season and this could be the year where they put it all together…and still finish 6 games behind the Patriots.

Player to Own:Marshawn Lynch (RB) - Early mock drafts have Lynch ranked as high as the #5 or 6 overall RB, all the way on down to #12 or 13. I can't possibly imagine drafting guys like Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James or even Frank Gore over Lynch, though. He is hands-down the center-piece of the Bills' run-first offense, and did everything he could to debunk the "rookies can't win you a fantasy league" myth with his strong performance down the stretch last year. Surprisingly consistent (no games under 60 YDs rushing in all of 2007) and a good source of TDs make Lynch a guy you can feel good about. And if the rumors of a larger role in the passing game hold true, I put his value right up there with Clinton Portis and maybe even Joseph Addai. If I were picking towards the late rounds of a 12+ team league, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

Player to Avoid: Trent Edwards (QB) - I'm still not sure why he starts over J.P. Losman, but he does. Look, unless you're in a 28 team league, you don't need a guy with more INTs (8) than TDs (7) as your QB.

Sleeper Pick: James Hardy (WR) - When the competition at your position consists of Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish, you have to like your chances of getting some playing time. So why not go and screw it up by getting into off-field trouble before ever even suiting up for the team that just drafted you, right? Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Hardy. It's a good thing you're a monstrous 6'7", and coming off of a 16 TD senior year at Indiana. You probably won't get drafted in many fantasy leagues but you've managed to intrigue guys like me and you even managed to get your name mentioned in this preview.

Biggest Risk: Lee Evans (WR) - The good news with Evans is that he can give you a 200+ YD game (granted, it will be totally out-of-nowhere) and that he's a pretty low-rated WR in most pre-draft rankings. The bad news is that he'll drive you nuts with his inconsistency. If you're the type of person who goes all-in with pocket 3's, or eats tomatoes, then maybe Evans is your guy. If not, consider yourself warned.



Miami Dolphins

Outside of RB Ronnie Brown, there might not be another Dolphin player worth owning on your fantasy team. The QB's are young and inexperienced and have limited options. The WR's have no veteran presence what-so-ever, except for the recently signed Ernest Wilford, who is a nice addition but can't possibly be expected to carry an offense. And Ricky Williams is, well, Ricky Williams. You know your team is bad when a two-win season is considered an improvement, but that might be where the Dolphins are right now. I'll try and give you a breakdown, but, like Dolphins fans, don't expect too much.

Player to Own/Biggest Risk: Ronnie Brown (RB) - Ronnie Brown qualifies as both - I wouldn't spend a first round draft pick on Brown, but if he's available during the stretch where guys like Reggie Bush, Edgerrin James and Willis McGahee are going than you can probably feel good about adding him to your team. Last year's injury was nasty, but Brown was just starting to break out in a big way before it happened. It's probably safe to assume that there will be some running room on the left side of that offense line with big 'ol Jake Long on board, but the passing game might struggle to such a degree that teams just load up against the run all year long.

Sleeper Pick: Ernest Wilford (WR) - Just because Wilford will be the #1 option for the Dolphins this year doesn't mean he warrants much fantasy consideration, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he put up some decent numbers from time-to-time. Ted Ginn Jr. might be the guy most people consider to be the choice here, but I'll take a semi-proven veteran over a pseudo-Devin Hester every time. Wilford has never had to be anything more than a 2nd or 3rd option so temper your expectations.

Player(s) to Avoid: Everyone else

So there you have it, your AFC East preview. Some of the other EA Experts will be adding to this section during the course of the off-season so stay tuned for more Divisional previews as we get closer to draft day. Word is bond, son.

Author's Bio - Patrick Lamont

Patrick "P-track" Lamont has been with EA Sports since 2002, most recently as a Staffing Coordinator. He has been a fantasy football owner since 2002 and his "man-crush" on New England Patriots QB Tom Brady is widely known throughout the Central Florida area. Comments or Questions? Email us at fantasy@ea.com

Important Dates

07/16 - Live Draft Tracker available on Xbox LIVE™ and PLAYSTATION®Network

09/03 - Prize Eligible Registration Cut-off

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09/04 - Start of Pro Season

10/22 - Midseason League Drafts Begin

11/02 - Midseason League Scoring Begins

11/27 - Trade Deadline

12/06 - Waiver Deadline